Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $58,685$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.04 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,796.0}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 41.1)}}\) (asimptote \(56,796.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,522$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.67 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,206.6}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 37.4)}}\) (asimptote \(9,206.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $33,204$ on 2020-06-03

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $281,270$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(2.88 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{280,685.3}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 51.7)}}\) (asimptote \(280,685.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $39,811$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(5.32 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{37,873.7}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 42.7)}}\) (asimptote \(37,873.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $240,247$ on 2020-06-03

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $240,326$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(5.72 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{229,766.7}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 34.8)}}\) (asimptote \(229,766.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27,128$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(6.61 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,203.7}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 33.9)}}\) (asimptote \(27,203.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $62,822$ on 2020-06-03

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $233,836$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(4.79 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{227,649.6}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 42.3)}}\) (asimptote \(227,649.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33,601$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(5.99 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{32,551.5}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 44.3)}}\) (asimptote \(32,551.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $39,297$ on 2020-06-03

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $40,803$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(3.01 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{41,401.6}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 62.3)}}\) (asimptote \(41,401.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,542$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(498 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,448.0}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 45.3)}}\) (asimptote \(4,448.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $36,261$ on 2020-06-03

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $192,330$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(3.72 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(35.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{182,241.4}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 40.0)}}\) (asimptote \(182,241.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29,024$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(5.34 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(32.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,936.5}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 38.4)}}\) (asimptote \(27,936.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $93,733$ on 2020-06-03

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $46,939$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(8.96 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{45,349.7}{1 + 10^{-0.046 (t - 40.0)}}\) (asimptote \(45,349.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,996$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.12 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(31.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,864.2}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 38.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,864.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $40,763$ on 2020-06-03

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,111$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(3.82 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{24,642.7}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 43.8)}}\) (asimptote \(24,642.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,659$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(213 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(25.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,623.2}{1 + 10^{-0.058 (t - 43.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,623.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $754$ on 2020-06-03

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Luxembourg recovered 98%
Croatia recovered 96%
Austria recovered 95%
Germany recovered 89%
Estonia recovered 88%
Slovakia recovered 88%
Andorra recovered 87%
Malta recovered 86%
Denmark recovered 83%
Lithuania recovered 66%
Italy recovered 64%
Bosnia and Herzegovina recovered 55%
San Marino recovered 49%
Serbia recovered 43%
Romania recovered 41%
Bulgaria recovered 20%

Luxembourg⮸

Population $625,978$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,024$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.13 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,870.7}{1 + 10^{-0.070 (t - 31.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,870.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $110$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(28.9 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107.6}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 29.2)}}\) (asimptote \(107.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $53$ on 2020-06-03

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,246$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(507 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,202.0}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 37.5)}}\) (asimptote \(2,202.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $103$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(17.8 \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(26.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103.5}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 36.0)}}\) (asimptote \(103.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $48$ on 2020-06-03

Austria⮸

Population $9,006,398$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $16,771$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(5.06 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(46.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,878.4}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 28.7)}}\) (asimptote \(15,878.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $670$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(158 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{641.8}{1 + 10^{-0.056 (t - 31.4)}}\) (asimptote \(641.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $429$ on 2020-06-03

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $184,121$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(4.33 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{175,811.8}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 35.1)}}\) (asimptote \(175,811.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $8,602$ on 2020-06-03

Best fit exponential: \(1.6 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,355.0}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 35.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,355.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,066$ on 2020-06-03